Sales numbers released by TRREB for December revealed no surprises - it was a typical December market. With the exception of detached homes (sales were up by 10% compared to last December), both average prices and number of sales were down, year-over-year.
On average, it’s taking 65 days for a listed property to sell. As a comparison, in December 2021, it took an average of 19 days for a property to sell. Buyers know there is no sense of urgency to make a decision.
Another number to look at is the percentage of list price that’s being paid. In December, it was 97%. This tells us two things: Properties, in general, are being priced close to market value, and there is some room to negotiate. In a hot market, that number goes over 100%, when many properties are purposely underpriced and receive multiple offers.
What will 2026 bring?
There are many factors affecting the market. The uncertainty of what’s happening south of the border, not to mention internationally, has an impact on how confident people feel about making a big purchase.
Right now, the key rate is 2.25%, and based on information from the big banks, rates.ca is predicting that the Bank of Canada is going to keep the key rate steady for the next six months. If this happens, confidence in the market will improve and we’ll see more buyers coming out of the woodwork.
My prediction for the next six months is that we won’t see any dramatic changes. Condo sales will remain sluggish, especially smaller one-bedroom units. Prices will only drop where owners can’t afford to wait. As for the single famil home market, I feel we will continue to see some stability there.
Increasing inflation also has an impact on buyers. Even if people have the down payment, a higher cost of living impacts their monthly budget, so even with lower interest rates and softening prices, the carrying cost may feel like a stretch when you factor in everything else.
Bottom line:
We won’t see a huge difference in the first half of 2026 because the market doesn’t generally turn around that quickly. Inventory levels will remain high. Many properties that didn’t sell in late 2025 will be re-listed, and there will be other sellers who want to take advantage of the spring market. Buyers should be prepared to hold on to a property for the long-term before they see any significant profit. But ultimately, home ownership is about how you want to live and what kind of space makes sense for you.
If you’re trying to make sense of the current market - whether as a buyer or a seller - I’m happy to talk through your options and give you a realistic view of what makes sense right now.