December always feels like Toronto is in “full-festive mode” - shorter days, twinkling lights, and calendars filling up. Between client get-togethers, office celebrations, and family dinners, it is a month built around connection.

Holiday at The Well is a great excuse to get out, enjoy the city, and soak up a bit of holiday atmosphere. You will also find a few ideas for standout Canadian wines to bring to dinner parties or gift to your favourite host.

As expected, the Bank of Canada held the prime rate steady, signalling a continued wait-and-see approach as we head into the new year. This is unlikely to affect December’s sales, but it may help shape buyer confidence heading into the spring market.

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It’s hard these days to talk about the market without sounding a bit negative; that’s especially true right now. Not only are we experiencing a multi-year slowdown in the market, it’s compounded by the traditional December downturn. I feel as though the winter slowdown started even earlier this year – I noticed fewer and fewer listings hitting the market, beginning in November.

Last month, I predicted that the housing market is going to be quiet throughout 2026 and, regardless of what happens with interest rates, I think that still holds true. The Bank of Canada is releasing the last rate announcement of the year on December 10, but whether it holds the prime rate steady as predicted, or surprises us with a .25% rate cut, it’s not going to move the needle.

As for interest rates in 2026, each of the big banks is predicting different things, but recent history has shown that it won’t be interest rate reductions that start to get the market moving again.

So what will it take? I think it’s going to happen when the global economy feels more stable. When the threat of tariffs has settled, the potential renegotiation of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) happens and we’re not at the whim of the leader of the US, people will feel more confident. It’s hard to commit to a long-term investment when the cost of living continues to rise and there is less job security.

With prices continuing to soften, people are hesitant to make a long-term investment if they think the market will continue to go down. It’s less about the numbers than about the outlook. People are confused, don’t feel confident, and life is expensive.

Of course, there are always outliers in the market, though. There’s been a lot of chatter about the sale of a home on Shaw Street in November, which sold for over $400,000 over asking!! We can surmise two things from this sale. One is that the home was way underpriced to generate interest. Two, because there were 28 offers for the house, consumers do have money to spend.

The bottom line is, in any market, people are going to need to buy and sell. While it’s true that sales numbers are far lower than average, over 1,900 properties changed hands in November. We’ve become conditioned to think of homes in Toronto as an investment rather than a place to live. I think that properties are still strong investments, but we’re not going to see the rapid growth we saw a few years ago. Even if prices continue to drop, it’s impossible to time the bottom of the market and it should be more about how you want to live than whether you can make a quick buck.

For people who are looking for something super specific, like a particular unit in a particular building, if it comes up, you should jump on it. But if you’re not that specific, wait. In the spring there will be even more listings, so your selection will be greater then as will your negotiating power.  

If you have any questions about the Toronto real estate market or are curious about what is happening in your neighbourhood, please get in touch!