2024 Real Estate Crystal Ball: Unraveling Toronto’s Market Amid Mortgage Rate Turbulence

It’s about this time of year that I gaze into my crystal ball and predict what’s going to happen in Toronto’s real estate market.

It’s hard to be accurate at the best of times, but with the uncertainty around mortgage rates, it’s even more difficult. I do want to try though, so here goes.

Mortgage Rates

According to CMHC, there are 2.2 million mortgages coming up for renewal in 2024. Those who have variable rate mortgages won’t be surprised by their future payments, but anybody with a fixed rate just might be.

I don’t believe that mortgage rates will increase again, but I also think that they’re not going to go down significantly either. If your mortgage is up for renewal in the first six months of the year, it’s worth talking to your mortgage broker about a shorter-term option so that you can easily renegotiate when rates do go lower.

Though we all grumbled about the mortgage stress test, it is going to be that test that saves the market from collapse. I predict the majority of homeowners will find a way to absorb the extra costs of higher monthly payments and there will not be a tsunami of listings hitting the market which would ultimately result in a dramatic average-price drop.

Although I believe the single family home market will remain relatively strong, I do have a hunch we are going to see more investor-owned lower end condos hit MLS in the coming months and that market will be the most vulnerable. I don’t think it will be overwhelming, but even investors with fixed-rate mortgages are going to face an increase with their mortgage renewals, and unless the current rent covers the new mortgage, they may look to sell the unit.  (What’s that? You want to learn more about the complications of selling a tenanted unit? Click here.)

More lower-end condo listings will most likely result in further softening of prices for studio and one bedroom condos, which is good news for first time buyers, but with fewer rentals on the market, I predict we’re going to see rental prices increase, despite the latest news that in November, the average rent in Toronto decreased by .2% compared to October, when rents were at a record high.

Will prices go down?

We definitely will continue to see more listings on the market, and those properties will take longer to sell. The more inventory there is, the more there is going to be a softening of prices, especially if rates don’t come down and people can’t afford to buy.

That said, if mortgage rates do go down, even by a single percentage point, we will see the market roar back to life. On a $500,000 mortgage, the difference is almost $300 a month.

As always, there are key neighbourhoods in the city that will defy the odds and that won’t be affected by whatever happens with mortgage rates.

Do you agree? Disagree? Let me know!


December Delights: Your Guide to Festive Events and Happenings This Month!

The Distillery Winter Village (Nov. 16th to Dec. 31st)

The Distillery Winter Village is a picture-perfect holiday experience where friends and family gather to take in the timeless romance and nostalgia of the holidays, stroll the cobblestone streets under the canopy lights and festive sounds, and shop a curated selection of the finest local craftspeople, one-of-a-kind shops, vendor cabins, and gifts. Warm up with some tasty delights at their many restaurants, cafés, and outdoor bars.

Holiday at The Well (Nov. 17th to Dec. 31st)

This season, The Well invites you to journey into a Nordic-inspired playground of winter-time delights. Partake in the magic of this free outdoor event, where Holiday at The Well beckons you to a realm beyond the ordinary.

Winter Blooms (Nov. 24th to Dec. 17th)

Combine the magic of the season with the wonders of nature. You’ll enjoy indoor and outdoor eco-friendly shopping, local food, and nature experiences that will engage visitors of all ages. Experience warming moments as you relax around the outdoor firepit or escape inside the new human-size terrarium. Winter Blooms opens on November 24 and will run until December 17, 2023, at the Toronto Botanical Garden.

10th Annual Leslieville Christmas Pop-up Market (Dec. 1st to 3rd)

Get into the holiday spirit and kick-start your Christmas shopping at the 10th Annual Leslieville Christmas Pop-up Market! Whether you’re looking for handmade jewelry, cosy winter accessories, home decor, or tasty homemade goodies, you’ll find it all there.

Holiday Street Market (Dec. 1st to Jan. 7th)

Get ready for Toronto’s new holiday extravaganza! The Street Eats Market brings you the Holiday Street Market at the CN Tower starting December 1st. It’s the ultimate festive hub with yummy food, local crafts, and free entry!

Roller Express Rink (Dec. 1st to Feb. 24th)

Union and TD present the Roller Express rink! Join the fun inside the newly opened TD West Carriageway for a magical free winter experience.

Holiday Season at the Village (Dec. 2nd to 23rd)

Experience the ultimate winter wonderland at Black Creek Pioneer Village, where holiday joy fills the air! Meet Santa himself and immerse yourself in festive activities like toy making, elf school, and crafting holiday decorations. Indulge in Santa’s favorite treats, sip cocoa while enjoying festive tales, and watch enchanting puppet shows.

The Winter Market at Evergreen Brick Works (Dec. 10th & 17th)

The Winter Market is back! And this year they’ve got two days of wintery fun in store for you at Evergreen Brick Works on December 10 and 17

Holiday Soul Concert (Dec. 15th)

“Holiday Soul Concert,” presented by OnMarz Productions, is an incredible showcase featuring the talented Justin Bacchus and Nichelle Bernard. Get ready to be dazzled by their soulful performances that will fill your heart with holiday cheer!